PERBANDINGAN METODE BACKPROPAGATION DENGAN MONTE CARLO DALAM MEMPREDIKSI JUMLAH PENDERITA DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DI KOTA PEKANBARU
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Abstract
Kota Pekanbaru merupakan salah satu kota yang memiliki kasus demam berdarah yang cukup tinggi, yaitu tahun 2012 tercatat 202 kasus, 2013 426 kasus, 2014 tercatat 113 kasus dan pada tahun 2015 tercatat sebanyak 272 kasus. Jumlah setiap tahunnya selalu berubah-ubah, karena disebabkan berbagai faktor yaitu perubahan cuaca yang tidak menentu dan lainnya, hal tersebut membuktkani bahwa Dinas Kesehatan Kota Pekanbaru belum mampu mengendalikan laju peningkatan penderita demam berdarah. Metode Backpropagation adalah metode peramalan yang sistematik untuk pelatihan multilayer, memiliki dasar matematis yang kuat dan dilatih dengan metode terbimbing.. Dengan 3 lapisan, yaitu lapisan masukan, tersembunyi dan keluaran. Simulasi Monte Carlo adalah tipe simulasi probabilistik dimana untuk memperoleh penyelesaian masalahnya digunakan metode sampling dari proses random. Monte Carlo mengadakan percobaan pada elemen probabilistic melalui sampling acak dengan bantuan pembangkitan bilangan random. Dengan membandingkan kedua tersebut dapat diketahui metode mana yang lebih bagus dalam memprediksi jumlah penderita demam berdarah. Hasil pengujian data dengan kedua metode didapat bahwa metode Backpropagation memiliki standar deviasi yang rendah dibanding metode Monte Carlo, sehingga metode Backpropagation dikatakan lebih baik dalam memprediksi jumlah penderita penyakit demam berdarah dengue di Kota Pekanbaru
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