JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN ALGORITMA BACKPROPAGATION DALAM MEMPREDIKSI KETERSEDIAAN KOMODITI PANGAN PROVINSI RIAU
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Abstract
Sebuah sistem untuk prediksi ketersediaan komoditi pangan dapat membantu dalam menentukan keputusan. Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan merupakan metode yang mampu melakukan proses matematis untuk prediksi kertersediaan komoditi pangan. Dengan algoritma Backpropagation, dilakukan proses pengolahan data terdahulu yang dijadikan input untuk prediksi ketersediaan komoditi pangan. Data yang diolah sebagai variabel input adalah Luas Area Panen, Tingkat Produktivitas, Jumlah Produksi dan Jumlah Kebutuhan Konsumsi. Sementara komoditi pangan yang diolah adalah jenis Padi, Jagung, Kedelai, Kacang Tanah, Kacang Hijau, Ubi Kayu dan Ubi Jalar. Data-data tersebut diambil dari tahun 2006 hingga tahun 2013. Tahun 2006 hingga 2012 dijadikan data input, sementara untuk tahun 2013 dijadikan data target. Beberapa tahapan Backpropagation yaitu dengan inisialisasi bobot, aktivasi, menghitung bobot input dan bias output dan perubahan bobot dan bias. Tahapan tersebut akan diperoleh output yang ingin dicapai dengan pendekatan error terkecil sehingga di peroleh hasil prediksi ketersediaan komoditi pangan. Proses pelatihan menggunakan alat bantu perangkat lunak Matlab 6.1. Hasilnya adalah prediksi jumlah ketersediaan komoditi pangan dengan proses pelatihan dan pengujian menghasilkan actual output sebagai target yang dicapai.
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